CICC released a research report said that at the beginning of 2021, the demand for antimony for photovoltaic accelerated growth, in the context of supply rigidity, antimony ingot inventory continued to depolymerize, antimony prices began to move up. At the end of February to early April this year, weak demand for antimony prices only 5% of the retracement, has been compared with the lowest point in April back to 2%. Standing at the current point in time, antimony prices at home and abroad have stabilized signs of recovery. The bank believes that in the antimony ore supply rigidity, antimony ingot inventory history of the lowest background, antimony prices are expected to recover with domestic demand back to the upward channel.
Antimony: "less but fine" strategic new energy metal. First, antimony has low abundance in the crust of metal elements, only higher than indium, laying the foundation for its scarcity. According to USGS, antimony in the global / China's static reserves and mining ratio was as low as 17 / 6 years. Secondly, antimony is indispensable as "industrial monosodium glutamate" and has been listed as a strategic mineral resource by many countries. Third, one of the antimony products, sodium pyroantimonate, as a photovoltaic glass clarifier optimal solution, its new energy properties are gradually revealed.
Antimony ore supply is rigid, regenerated antimony is difficult to have a large increase in the short term. First, China's antimony mines in production face declining grade, resource depletion and other issues, and the lack of backup resources, resulting in a decline in mine production from 180,000 tons in 2008 to 60,000 tons in 2022. According to the bank, considering the reduction of producing mines and the small expansion of Huaxi Mining, the future domestic supply may be maintained at 60,000 tons/year. Secondly, according to the bank's statistics, among the 20 antimony mining projects in stock overseas, 18 of them are facing the problem of production decline or shutdown, and only 2 small antimony mines are temporarily stable in production, and the future increment is only Huayu Mining Tarkin project and Russia FEA antimony mining project. Third, the domestic and overseas recycled antimony market polarization, overseas recycling has basically mature, domestic recycling in the short term is difficult to breakthrough progress, the bank is expected to 2022-2025 recycled antimony supply CAGR of about 1.6%.
Riding on the east wind of photovoltaic development, downstream demand is systematically improving. First, sodium pyroantimonate clarifies well and accounts for less than 0.3% of the cost of photovoltaic components, which is currently difficult to be replaced. According to the bank's calculations, with the global new PV installed capacity of high-speed growth, and double-sided double-glass component penetration rate increase, 2022-2025 antimony demand in the field of photovoltaic CAGR is expected to reach 30%. Secondly, the bank believes that the traditional areas such as flame retardants and lead-acid batteries are expected to have favorable demand for antimony as the domestic economy recovers. The bank conservatively assumed that the flame retardant field due to antimony prices continue to rise and a small substitution scenario, bromine flame retardants accounted for from 21% in 2021 to 17% in 2025, overall, antimony 2022-2025 total demand CAGR of about 5.5%.
Looking ahead to the next three years, global antimony supply and demand is expected to remain tight, driving antimony price pivot upward. In view of the traditional demand with the economic recovery gradually pick up, photovoltaic antimony rapid growth, superimposed on the global antimony ore supply rigidity, the bank expects the global antimony supply and demand is expected to maintain tight pattern, 2023-2025 antimony supply and demand gap of -0.7, -0.8, -0.9 million tons, respectively, supply and demand continue to tighten the supply and demand is expected to drive antimony price pivot to the upside.
Original address: https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230605A0229I00
